This evening, I visited the Not! In The Can geocache at an industrial park in Lyndhurst. The area was quiet because it was after hours and the cache was a quick find. I was, however, surprised to get FTF on this one, knowing that some local geocachers commute along Route 3.
After that, I got 2 triple cheeseburgers for $3 at McDonald's in northern Paramus. Those cheeseburgers were actually disappointing. For 1058 calories, they weren't that big. And finally, I went to Pathmark in Ramsey to restock my fridge. With the exception of the iced tea, everything I needed was on sale this week. Funny how that works.
I haven't written about stocks or investments for a while. That's because I've been mostly watching the wild swings and daily gyrations. However, I recently started making some small moves. Here's what I'm looking at:
1. High dividend yields
If you're tolerating all that volatility, you might as well get paid for it. A 20% dividend yield is within reach. Some stocks I follow are there already, while others may get there within a few weeks. The caveat here is most dividends will get cut as earnings fall during a recession. The trick is to figure out whose dividend is sustainable and whose is not, and that is a tough question. It is an exciting time though. I don't think I ever got an above-20% yield since the Crown American REIT in the late 90s.
2. Deep value
Panicky hedge funds have been dumping stocks left and right, regardless of fundamentals. There are lots of bargains out there, but at the same time, there are lots of value traps. I'm first looking at stocks that I sold in the past for being overvalued to see if value has returned. Might as well reuse some of the research I did in the past.
3. Overbought US$
The 16% rise in the USD Index over the past few months was driven by a global flight to safety as panicking hedge funds and investment banks sold stocks and commodities and fled to the apparent safety of the dollar. However, with interest rates at an all-time low and money supply and debt rising rapidly to pay for all those bailouts, I think the USD is trading way above its fundamentals. However, I don't need any special trades here. Anything I do that reduces the cash level is inherently anti-dollar. So it'll happen automatically when I see buying opportunities. As an aside, gold in the $700 to $750 range is a friggin' bargain.